The Consumer Price Index (CPI) based inflation increased to 11.8% year-on-year (YoY) in May 2024, down from 17.3% in April, according to the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS).
Key Highlights:
- The CPI averaged 24.52% during the first eleven months (July-May) of the fiscal year 2023-24, compared to 29.16% in the same period last year.
- On a month-on-month (MoM) basis, inflation decreased to -3.2% in May 2024, from -0.4% in April and a rise of 1.6% in May 2023.
Urban and Rural CPI:
- Urban CPI increased to 14.3% YoY in May 2024, down from 19.4% in April and 35.1% in May 2023. On a MoM basis, it decreased to -2.8% in May 2024, from -0.1% in April and an increase of 1.5% in May 2023.
- Rural CPI increased to 8.2% YoY in May 2024, down from 14.5% in April and 42.2% in May 2023. On a MoM basis, it decreased to -3.9% in May 2024, from -0.9% in April and an increase of 1.7% in May 2023.
Sensitive Price Index (SPI) and Wholesale Price Index (WPI):
- SPI inflation increased to 15.3% YoY in May 2024, down from 21.6% in April and 43% in May 2023. On a MoM basis, it decreased by 4% in May 2024, from -0.7% in April and an increase of 1.3% in May 2023.
- WPI inflation increased to 9.9% YoY in May 2024, down from 13.9% in April and 32.8% in May 2023. On a MoM basis, it decreased by -2.5% in May 2024, from -0.7% in April and an increase of 1% in May 2023.
Non-Food Non-Energy Inflation:
- Urban non-food non-energy inflation increased to 12.3% YoY in May 2024, down from 13.1% in April and 20% in May 2023. On a MoM basis, it increased by 0.4% in May 2024, from 2.1% in April and 1.2% in May 2023.
- Rural non-food non-energy inflation increased to 17% YoY in May 2024, down from 19.3% in April and 26.9% in May 2023. On a MoM basis, it increased by 0.5% in May 2024, from 2% in April and 2.5% in May 2023.
Trimmed Mean Inflation:
- Urban trimmed mean inflation increased to 11% YoY in May 2024, down from 13.4% in April and 30.5% in May 2023. On a MoM basis, it decreased by -0.5% in May 2024, from 0.5% in April and 1.5% in May 2023.
- Rural trimmed mean inflation increased to 10.6% YoY in May 2024, down from 15% in April and 38.8% in May 2023. On a MoM basis, it decreased by -0.9% in May 2024, from 0.6% in April and 2% in May 2023.
Commodity Price Changes:
- Food items that increased in price include potatoes (14.73%), meat (4.06%), beans (3.91%), eggs (1.60%), vegetable ghee (1.27%), and cooking oil (1.26%).
- Food items that decreased in price include tomatoes (-51.23%), onions (-51.15%), chicken (-35.28%), wheat (-22.17%), and fresh fruits (-8.06%).
- Non-food items that increased in price include dental services (14.64%), doctor clinic fees (5.48%), transport services (3.35%), hospital services (2.73%), and textbooks (2.33%).
- Non-food items that decreased in price include liquefied hydrocarbons (-9.45%), electricity charges (-4.50%), motor fuel (-3.18%), and communication apparatus (-2.35%).
Report:
Reports adds that the 11.8% CPI increase in May 2024 marks the lowest inflation rate in 30 months, coming just before the central bank’s review of the key interest rate, which has been at a historic high of 22% for seven consecutive meetings. Inflation has remained above 20% since May 2022, with a peak of 38% in May 2023 due to reforms under the International Monetary Fund bailout program. The recent decline in inflation is attributed to a sharp drop in food prices, according to Amreen Soorani, head of research at JS Global Capital.
